How to Think Straight |
1 How Mind Works |
1.1 Disciplines |
1.1.1 Cognitive Science |
1.1.2 Neural Science |
1.1.3 Psychology |
1.1.4 Evolutionary Psychology |
1.1.5 Machine Learning |
1.1.6 Artificial Intelligence |
1.2 Theories |
1.2.1 Bounded Rationality; Simple Heuristics that Makes us Smart |
1.2.2 Social Animal |
1.2.3 Language as a window into Human Mind |
1.2.4 Decision Theory |
1.2.5 Reasoning, Deductive and Inductive |
1.2.6 Argumentation Theory |
1.2.7 Bayesian Inference |
2 Cognitive Fallacies |
2.1 Fallacies in Human Reasoning |
2.1.1 Informal Fallacies |
2.1.1.1 e.g. False Dilemma |
2.1.1.2 e.g. Correlation doesn't imply Causation |
2.1.1.3 e.g. Post Hoc |
2.1.1.4 e.g. Begging the Question |
2.1.2 Formal Fallacies |
2.1.2.1 e.g. Denying the Antecedent |
2.1.2.2 e.g. Affirming the Consequent |
2.1.2.3 e.g. Affirming a Disjunct |
2.1.3 Cognitive Biases |
2.1.3.1 e.g. Bandwagon Effect |
2.1.3.2 e.g. Authority Bias |
2.1.3.3 e.g. Confirmation Bias |
2.1.3.4 e.g. Framing Effect |
2.1.3.5 e.g. Wishful Thinking |
2.2 Fallacies in daily Judgment and Decision Making |
2.2.1 Judgment and Decision Making |
2.2.1.1 e.g. Cognitive Dissonance and Self-Justification |
2.2.1.2 e.g. Representativeness, Availability and Anchoring |
2.2.1.3 e.g. Paradox of Choice |
2.2.2 Behavioral Economics |
2.2.2.1 Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes |
2.2.2.2 Predictably Irrational |
2.2.2.3 Black Swan |
3 Critical Thinking |
3.1 What's the problem? |
3.1.1 Set a yardstick first, and then measure everything against it. |
3.2 What're the assumptions? |
3.2.1 Unconscious Assumptions are Dangerous |
3.2.1.1 It ain't so much the things we don't know that get us into trouble. It's the things we know that just ain't so. |
3.2.2 How to Smoke Out the Assumptions? |
3.2.2.1 By asking questions |
3.2.2.1.1 Routine Question: "It doesn't have to ..."; "Do we have to ... ?" |
3.2.2.1.2 Routine Question: "This doesn't necessarily mean ..." |
3.2.2.1.3 Routine Question: "What would happen if we don't do this?" |
3.2.2.2 By formalizing the reasoning process |
3.2.2.2.1 Specify the Premise(s). |
3.2.2.2.2 Look at the Conclusion(s). |
3.2.2.2.3 Does the conclusion(s) necessarily follow the Premise(s)? |
3.2.2.3 By learning critical-thinking |
3.2.2.3.1 e.g. False analogy |
3.2.2.3.2 e.g. Problem of Induction |
3.3 What're the facts? |
3.3.1 If you don't have knowledge, you have assumptions. |
3.3.2 Do your homework, get the facts right. |
3.3.3 Routine Question: "Really?" |
3.4 Where's the logic? |
3.4.1 Routine Question: "... doesn't necessarily mean ...!" |
3.4.2 Routine Question: "It doesn't have to be ... to ...!" |
3.4.3 Routine Question: "... and why is that?" |
3.5 What's the conclusion? |
3.5.1 Avoid jumping to conclusions; see Cognitive Shortcut. |
3.5.2 Routine Question: "So?", "Then?", "So what?" |
4 Problem Solving |
4.1 Problems |
4.1.1 Problem often known and well defined |
4.1.1.1 e.g. Math |
4.1.1.2 e.g. Algorithms |
4.1.2 You figure out what the problem is |
4.1.2.1 Problems we face everyday |
4.1.2.1.1 e.g. financial decisions |
4.1.2.1.2 e.g. time management |
4.1.2.1.3 e.g. career |
4.1.2.1.4 e.g. relationship |
4.1.2.2 Judgment and Decision Making in general |
4.1.2.3 Practical Problems |
4.1.2.4 Complex Decisions |
4.2 Techniques |
4.2.1 Routine Question: "What's the Problem?" |
4.2.2 Heuristics |
4.2.2.1 e.g. Trial and Error |
4.2.2.2 e.g. Analogy |
4.2.2.3 e.g. Specialization |
4.2.2.4 e.g. Simplification |
4.2.2.5 e.g. Working Backwards |
4.2.2.6 e.g. Brainstorming |
4.2.2.7 e.g. Root Cause Analysis |
4.2.2.8 e.g. Lateral Thinking |
4.2.3 Decision Making |
4.2.3.1 Pros and Cons Analysis |
4.2.3.2 Key Factor Analysis |
4.2.3.3 Choice under Uncertainty |